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Post by Arutha on Jan 5, 2004 18:41:54 GMT -5
Right, they should really review the mathematical course they teach in american schools, because the chance of being mafia twice in a row is not the same as being mafia once this is actually amusing
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Post by Yaw on Jan 5, 2004 19:19:36 GMT -5
First of all, there are nine players in this game, not ten. That means that the probability of ck (or any one of us for that matter) being scum in this game (assuming a 2-player Catholic group, which I think is a fairly safe assumption) is 2/9, not 1/5. The intersection of the two, that is, the probability of ck being scum in both this game and the last one is therefore 2/45. Looks improbable, doesn't it? But wait.
The number of ways to get a two-player group out of a group of ten players is 45. Thus, the probability of two specific people forming that group is 1/45 (there's only one way of choosing two specific people from a group of ten). That's less than the probability of ck being scum in both games! Yet, in each mafia game of ten players, we're essentially trying to figure out how a probability of 1/45 worked out.
Also, pieisgood has a point in that right now, ck being scum in game 1 is a given, so the probability for this game is 2/9. In either case, it certainly isn't outside the bounds of probability -- and over time if the process of selection were truly random (which it is, as both nonbeliever for this game and I for the last game used Excel's random number generator to determine roles) we could expect the same person to get a mafia role twice in a row at some point. If we got to game 5 and ck were mafia for all those games, I'd really start to wonder. But two in a row isn't that outlandish a possibility.
All the above isn't to say that ck is or isn't scum. I certainly don't claim to know. I do think his behaviour thus far strikes me as potentially scummy, so I advocated for some pressure on him to check it out. I'm open to changing my vote if we find another player to be a better candidate for being Catholic, or if ck's reactions show him not to be Catholic.
I'd rather not determine who to lynch based on something along the lines of a die roll. As illustrated by the "lay out a shuffled pack of cards" example, sometimes very low probability events happen. If we don't consider all the possibilities here, we risk being screwed.
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Post by Arutha on Jan 5, 2004 19:37:12 GMT -5
Ah didnt see that bit about the first game in that post, my appoligies on that comment then however i am still basing my maths off the first game because it still does effect it, i cant be bothered working it out fully, i am ment to be cleaning, and that would take time to do properly, but it does, in the way i am working, effect the probability, which is why i choose to support him which is basically what i have been saying, people often ask why i am supporting him saying that we both must be mafia, i am just pointing out my reasons. However since the vote seems to be going the way it is, u shall see if ck is mafia or not and see if we are aligned (if he is mafia and voted out no doubt i would be second)
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Post by Arutha on Jan 5, 2004 19:42:55 GMT -5
Speaking of which, Non - From tomorrow my time - 12 noon when this was posted - i will be away and unable to access a computer most of the time, tomorrow night i spose and not again until sunday, i dont know what you want to decide to do with my posting, please reply
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Post by pieisgood on Jan 5, 2004 19:59:32 GMT -5
Okay, I know you can't respond to this Arutha, but here are my thoughts:
1) How does the first game affect it? Please explain this to me, and at least the "coin flip" situation. As far as I'm concerened, FACT: it doesn't. Here's something to chew on:
In the INFINITE games that never happened, I was scum 1/10th of the time. 1/10th of infinite is infinite. All those games used excell random number generator thingy. so in this game, aren't the odds of me being scum infintesimal (0) since I was just scum and infinite number of times and each one reduces my odds of being scum? And wouldn't the same logic hold true for everybody here? So nobody here is scum. Yay! Problem solved.
ck... we're waiting and the deadline is tomorrow; you're lynched soon...
-pieisgood
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Post by Yaw on Jan 5, 2004 21:27:00 GMT -5
Actually, the deadline's today. But nonbeliever said it wouldn't be enforced until kaeis got here, which hasn't happened yet. (How is that going, out of curiosity?)
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Post by ck on Jan 5, 2004 21:45:12 GMT -5
go ahead and lynch me ...... and ive read all the post and have nothing else to say....
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Post by nonny on Jan 5, 2004 21:51:24 GMT -5
Actually, the deadline's today. But nonbeliever said it wouldn't be enforced until kaeis got here, which hasn't happened yet. (How is that going, out of curiosity?) Well kaeis never respond after i emailed her, and i don't believe she has posted in a while. So i'm going to try to get some one to play in her place. But the problem is also jacopo7531 pmed me saying he can't play anymoer so i have no clue what to do. If any of you have any suggestions i would love to hear them. Do you want to wait for two new poeple to replace jacopo7531 and keais? Do you want to lynch ck with only 3 votes? Or wait for more? Please answer the questions and/or give suggestions. Thanks much, Nonny P.S in only one game day we already have 6 pages to less then the entire last game. |
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Post by Yaw on Jan 5, 2004 22:04:11 GMT -5
It's best to get replacements. Perhaps some of the people from the other game who aren't in this one? Or consistent posters on the board itself that haven't signed up?
ck
That's your defense? The hell?!?
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Post by pieisgood on Jan 5, 2004 22:17:14 GMT -5
yes... ck... why would you want to be lynched? No matter what role you are, you would be fighting against it. We need evidence, ck... if you really are a citizen, you're only helping the mafia.
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Post by Griffey on Jan 6, 2004 11:34:30 GMT -5
ck, your response tells me one of 3 things:
1. You are trying to confuse us and keep us from taking risk by portraying yourself as a wild card or a variable.
2. You are trying to act as though you have nothing to hide in order to convince us you're a townie.
3. You genuinely don't care if we lynch you or not and are OK with leaving the game.
I honestly have no clue what on earth you actually were trying to communicate there. But I will say one thing: This game involves risk. I think that our group in general is trying to play it too safe. Understandably so, looking back at what happened last time. However, at some point we are going to have to take a chance or ultimately someone is going to start using this fear against us, as I suspect ck might have just done.
Regardless of this, if you were a townie, ck, you would not be so careless with your life. You have not portrayed yourself to be innocent and this only adds to your list of incriminating evidence. Therefore I will vote: ck.
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Post by droskey on Jan 6, 2004 13:41:46 GMT -5
Hi folks,
I'm not going to be able to participate as much in this game as I thought I would. So I'm removing myself from the game. Sorry about the inconvenience.
Cheers.
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Post by AuntieSocial on Jan 6, 2004 16:25:11 GMT -5
Are we going to be delaying while finding a replacement for jacopo and/or kaeis?
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Post by Yaw on Jan 6, 2004 18:46:35 GMT -5
Interesting question...
On the side of pausing, we're temporarily down to 6 active players in a game of 9. With 5 to lynch, that's not very good for the town.
On the other hand, if we pause we'll just have the same problem as we always do getting started.
Perhaps a compromise? We keep playing but agree not to end the day until replacements get here? What do you think, nonbeliever?
In either case, we should all try to be proactive in bringing in the two replacements. The sooner we get them, the better.
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muddog
Maverick's Chew Toy
The blue things are books titles Plato, and the kid has a jar of Play-Doh
Posts: 29
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Post by muddog on Jan 6, 2004 19:45:47 GMT -5
Mabey someone could contact maveric and see if he would like to step into one of the roles. He did play last time.
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